Bill Maher is an interesting person -- he usually supports what "the scientists" say, but at other times he just goes his own way regardless of what the scientific evidence says, as he does with vaccines. Nevertheless, he still has some interesting moments on his show when he's not being too much of an ass. He is a comedian though, and thus when he says things, you need to consider the legitimacy of those claims.
In this case, I decided to look at the list of winners for both the Super Bowl and the World Series. I then calculated the percent of the total number of championship games that each team had appeared in and/or won (as a percent of the total, not of their appearances). This information is summarized in the tables below, after the break.
Super Bowl
| Appearances | Team | Wins | Losses | Percent Appeared | Percent Won |
| 8 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 6 | 2 | 17.78% | 13.33% |
| 8 | Dallas Cowbows | 5 | 3 | 17.78% | 11.11% |
| 6 | New England Patriots | 3 | 3 | 13.33% | 6.67% |
| 6 | Denver Broncos | 2 | 4 | 13.33% | 4.44% |
| 5 | San Francisco 49ers | 5 | 0 | 11.11% | 11.11% |
| 5 | Green Bay Packers | 4 | 1 | 11.11% | 8.89% |
| 5 | Washington Redskins | 3 | 2 | 11.11% | 6.67% |
| 5 | Los Angeles/St. Louis Rams | 3 | 2 | 11.11% | 6.67% |
| 5 | Miami Dolphins | 2 | 3 | 11.11% | 4.44% |
| 4 | New York Giants | 3 | 1 | 8.89% | 6.67% |
| 4 | Baltimore/Indianapolis Colts | 2 | 2 | 8.89% | 4.44% |
| 4 | Minnesota Vikings | 0 | 4 | 8.89% | 0.00% |
| 4 | Buffalo Bills | 0 | 4 | 8.89% | 0.00% |
| 3 | Los Angeles/St. Louis Rams | 1 | 2 | 6.67% | 2.22% |
| 2 | Kansas City Chiefs | 1 | 1 | 4.44% | 2.22% |
| 2 | Chicago Bears | 1 | 1 | 4.44% | 2.22% |
| 2 | Cincinnati Bengals | 0 | 2 | 4.44% | 0.00% |
| 2 | Philadelphia Eagles | 0 | 2 | 4.44% | 0.00% |
| 1 | New York Jets | 1 | 0 | 2.22% | 2.22% |
| 1 | Baltimore Ravens | 1 | 0 | 2.22% | 2.22% |
| 1 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 1 | 0 | 2.22% | 2.22% |
| 1 | New Orleans Saints | 1 | 0 | 2.22% | 2.22% |
| 1 | San Diego Chargers | 0 | 1 | 2.22% | 0.00% |
| 1 | Atlanta Falcons | 0 | 1 | 2.22% | 0.00% |
| 1 | Tennessee Titans | 0 | 1 | 2.22% | 0.00% |
| 1 | Carolina Panthers | 0 | 1 | 2.22% | 0.00% |
| 1 | Seattle Seahawks | 0 | 1 | 2.22% | 0.00% |
| 1 | Arizona Cardinals | 0 | 1 | 2.22% | 0.00% |
| 0 | Detroit Lions | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 0 | Cleveland Browns | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 0 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 0 | Houston Texans | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% |
World Series
| Appearances | Team | Wins | Losses | Percent Appeared | Percent Won |
| 40 | New York Yankees | 27 | 13 | 37.74% | 25.47% |
| 18 | San Francisco Giants | 6 | 12 | 16.98% | 5.66% |
| 18 | Los Angeles Dodgers | 6 | 12 | 16.98% | 5.66% |
| 17 | St. Louis Cardinals | 10 | 7 | 16.04% | 9.43% |
| 14 | Oakland Athletics | 9 | 5 | 13.21% | 8.49% |
| 11 | Boston Red Sox | 7 | 4 | 10.38% | 6.60% |
| 10 | Chicago Cubs | 2 | 8 | 9.43% | 1.89% |
| 10 | Detroit Tigers | 4 | 6 | 9.43% | 3.77% |
| 9 | Atlanta Braves | 3 | 6 | 8.49% | 2.83% |
| 9 | Cincinnati Reds | 5 | 4 | 8.49% | 4.72% |
| 7 | Pittsburgh Pirates | 5 | 2 | 6.60% | 4.72% |
| 7 | Baltimore Orioles | 3 | 4 | 6.60% | 2.83% |
| 7 | Philadelphia Phillies | 2 | 5 | 6.60% | 1.89% |
| 6 | Minnesota Twins | 3 | 3 | 5.66% | 2.83% |
| 5 | Chicago White Sox | 3 | 2 | 4.72% | 2.83% |
| 5 | Cleveland Indians | 2 | 3 | 4.72% | 1.89% |
| 4 | New York Mets | 2 | 2 | 3.77% | 1.89% |
| 2 | Florida Marlins | 2 | 0 | 1.89% | 1.89% |
| 2 | Toronto Blue Jays | 2 | 0 | 1.89% | 1.89% |
| 2 | Kansas City Royals | 1 | 1 | 1.89% | 0.94% |
| 2 | San Diego Padres | 0 | 2 | 1.89% | 0.00% |
| 1 | Arizona Diamondbacks | 1 | 0 | 0.94% | 0.94% |
| 1 | Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim | 1 | 0 | 0.94% | 0.94% |
| 1 | Colorado Rocies | 0 | 1 | 0.94% | 0.00% |
| 1 | Houston Astros | 0 | 1 | 0.94% | 0.00% |
| 1 | Milwaukee Brewers | 0 | 1 | 0.94% | 0.00% |
| 1 | Tampa Bay Rays | 0 | 1 | 0.94% | 0.00% |
| 1 | Texas Rangers | 0 | 1 | 0.94% | 0.00% |
| 0 | Seattle Mariners | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 0 | Washington Nationals | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% |
Now, one note about the way in which the above data is presented is that because two teams are in each championship game, the "Percent Appeared" actually totals 200%. To say what percent of the total number of championship games a particular group of teams were playing in, you'd have to go through each game and figure out which teams played together.
In the graphs below, I've shown the number of teams versus the # of championship games won or appeared in. For appearances, I halved the percentage numbers so they'll total 100% instead of 200%. This isn't exactly accurate either. For example, The Dallas Cowboys and Pittsburgh Steelers have faced each other in the Super Bowl 3 times (X, XIII , and XXX). So the number of Super Bowls that included the Pittsburgh Steelers and/or Dallas Cowboys is actually 5 for the Steelers only + 5 for the Cowboys only + 3 for both of them in the same game, which is equal to 13 of 45 Super Bowls. Each team appeared in 8 of 45 spots (17.8%) for their respective conferences, but this accounts for only 13 of 45 (28.9%) Super Bowls because their appearances overlapped 3 times. Finding a more elegant way to deal with this would take more time than I'm interested in spending (like separating AFC/NFC and AL/NL), but I do acknowledge there are some faults in this method. The number of teams on the x-axis are in decreasing order for the number of games appeared in or won, respectively.
As far as the degree to which the differences in economic management influence the championship team variability and popularity of the sports, you can't really determine causation from this data. Bill Maher's point about a small city like Green Bay getting to (and then winning) the Super Bowl is also countered in the MLB by a team like the New York Mets. There's a team that's in the same big city as the #1 Yankees, but still sucks something awful (1.9% won versus the Yankees' 25.5%).
Conclusion
There's definitely a difference in the variability of the teams appearing in the championship games for the 2 sports, although that trend is less consistent for the number of championships won by the top teams. Bill Maher's point is superficially supported by this year's Super Bowl, but it's far from being a logically sound argument. The sports are very different, and while the NFL's salary cap and money management are different from the MLB's luxury tax, they are far from being the only variables involved. Let's not forget team history, draft differences, team administrative and ownership influences, season length, number of games, fan base, and all the other factors that determine a team's success. One might also want to look at the variability in teams' playoff appearances to see how the sports compare, rather than just focusing on their respective championship games.
I laughed my ass off during that New Rules segment when I watched it, and it was a good bit of comedy. Superficially, it seems like a great argument, but it's not entirely supported beyond that, especially considering all of the other factors that influence a team and/or sport's overall success. I think there are many advantages to equalizing the playing field as the NFL attempts to do, but one must stop short of crediting that system for the NFL's popularity. I also wouldn't take the comparison with Democratic ideology too seriously, and this is coming from a person who generally supports Democrats!
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